The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
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The Field
The field for the second major championship of the season is set at 156 players. Like all PGA Championships, the event gives out 20 spots to PGA TOUR teaching professionals who qualify through the 2023 PGA Professional Championship. The rest of the competitors come from the top pros in the world, with the top 70 on the PGA TOUR money list (from last year’s PGA Championship until two weeks prior) getting spots. Open Championship, U.S. Open and Masters winners from the past five years also get invites.
From a field perspective, all of the big names are playing. Scottie Scheffler’s baby watch has ended and he’ll be back in the field as the betting favorite (+400; DraftKings). Liv golfers such as Brooks Koepka, Jon Rahm, and Bryson DeChambeau (among others) have all qualified from their past major wins and will be in attendance. A couple of late field notes include Taylor Montgomery and Steve Stricker withdrawing, and Alex Smalley and CT Pan getting their spots as alternates. Chris Gotterup, who won last week in Myrtle Beach, also qualified.
Hideki Matsuyama (back, lower body, everything) did withdraw last week but is in the field. He’ll be a risky play for DFS once again but it does look like he’ll play. For daily fantasy golf purposes, it’s also worth noting that the PGA Championship has its own cut rule. For this week only, the top 70 players and ties will be allowed to play the weekend, with no secondary cut rule intact. This is different from regular PGA TOUR events, where only the top 65 and ties play the weekend.
The Course
Valhalla Golf Club (Louisville, Kentucky)
- Par: 71, 7,609 yards
- Greens: Bentgrass
- Design: Jack Nicklaus (1986); Resurfaced tees and fairways from bentgrass to zoysiagrass in 2021.
- Course Record: Jose Maria Olazabal (63; 2000 PGA Championship)
This is the fourth time that Valhalla will host the PGA Championship. It played as a par 72, around 7,200 yards (max) back in 2000 when Tiger Woods famously outdueled Bob May for the win, but was lengthened to 7,400+ yards and made a par 71 for the 2014 PGA Championship.
This year’s Valhalla will look and play markedly different to both of those events.
The venue is again set to play as a Par 71 but has been pushed to 7,609 yards. This will make it the third-longest venue on the PGA this season in total yardage. However, given it's a Par 71, its effective length will make it the longest course the players have seen to date.
To add in length, new tee boxes on several holes (No. 1, 12, 14, and 18) have been installed to make the course play more challenging and the fairways have been replaced with Zoysiagrass, which is a type of strain that typically grows slower in the spring. It’s likely to lead to firmer fairways if they dry out.
On top of the course being nearly 100 yards longer than what the players saw last week, at the always-fiery Quail Hollow, the rough at Valhalla is set to be grown to a reported 4 inches, which is approximately 1.5 to 2.0 inches longer than we saw last week. If the fairways do get dried out, expect off-center tee shots to get penalized severely as the Kentucky bluegrass/fescue rough will likely also play harsher than what the players saw last week as well.
Like many Jack Nicklaus designs, Valhalla includes several tougher par 4s with six that measure over 450 yards in length, and two that measure in at over 500 yards. There are also some scoring opportunities around the course and while the setup has changed a bit, six holes (including all three par 5s) played under par in 2014. Players will need to be aggressive when the time arrives but on the longer holes decisions off the tee will be vital as well.
Regardless, this is a venue and major where strength off the tee is vital. Of the past 10 winners of this event, only one (Jimmy Walker in 2016) gained less than 2.0 strokes off the tee. Recent winners like Justin Thomas (2017) and Brooks Koepka (2023, 2019, 2018) gained well over 2.5 strokes OTT on their way to victory; and 2014 PGA champion Rory McIlroy gained 6.2 the year he triumphed at this venue.
In terms of comparisons, Valhalla is likely a little more generous off the tee than courses like Riviera and even Quail Hollow but it certainly fits with those venues from routing and yardage perspectives. Torrey Pines is also a good comparable as is and Muirfield Village, which is another Jack Nicklaus design where players are constantly tested with long and mid-iron approaches.
2024 Weather Outlook: This event saw plenty of rain and humidity back in 2014 when Rory McIlroy won his last major and this year’s event could mimic that former event in many ways. Early week we are likely to see more than one shower or thunderstorm pass through the course will likely soften up the venue a decent amount. Thursday looks benign enough with lower winds in the 5-10mph region and cloudy skies. There is a good chance we will see some stoppages on Friday with thunderstorms in the forecast and a 60% chance of rain. Right now, rain is forecast for the afternoon mainly so it's possible that if the winds are lower the Friday AM players may get a slight advantage by playing a softer course and not having to play 18+ holes on Saturday. Either way, expect scoring to be helped somewhat by this rain.
Last 5 Winners
2023—Brooks Koepka -9 (over Scottie Scheffler and Viktor Hovland -7)
2022—Justin Thomas -5 (over Will Zalatoris playoff)
2021—Phil Mickelson -6 (over Brooks Koepka/Louis Oosthuizen -4)
2020—Collin Morikawa -13 (over Paul Casey -11)
2019—Brooks Koepka -8 (over Dustin Johnson -6)
Winning Trends
- Eight of the past 11 winners of the PGA Championship finished T15 or better in their last start before winning this event (Justin Thomas finished T28 in his final start in 2017 and Collin Morikawa finished T20 in his final start in 2020).
- Seven of the past eight winners of the PGA Championship played in an event the week prior to their win, (exception: Mickelson in 2021 and Koepka 2023).
- Outside of Phil Mickelson (2021) each of the last 10 winners of the PGA Championship gained strokes OTT and on APP in their final start before winning the PGA Championship.
Winners Stats and Course Overview
Brooks Koepka 2023 (9 under par — played at Oak Hill)
- 2023 lead-in form (T5-T3-T2-T11-win)
SG: OTT—+4.3
SG: APP—+6.0
SG: TTG—+14.6
SG: ATG—+4.3
SG: PUTT—+4.2
- Koepka’s win came at a different course but similar PGA setups to what we have seen over the last couple of seasons.
- Much like 2022 winner Justin Thomas, Koepka also had a great lead-in which was earmarked by a top 10 at Augusta and multiple other top-five finishes.
- Koepka became the fifth winner in a row to have gained over 4.0 strokes off the tee for the week of his win.
Finding Values (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them. This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value compared to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.
Tommy Fleetwood +3500 and $8,700
Comparables:
Min Woo Lee +6000 and $7,700
Comparables:
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Recent Form
1. Scottie Scheffler ($13,200; win-win-T2): Scheffler hasn’t played since winning the RBC Heritage but will be in the field this week. He’s the best player in the world and until he goes winless for a couple of starts, he gets top billing in this column.
2. Rory McIlroy ($12,000; win-win): McIlroy won his second event in a row last weekend at Quail Hollow. He put in a big Sunday and gained over 4.0 strokes putting for the week. He looks ready to finally give Scheffler a proper challenge at the PGA.
3. Xander Schauffele ($10,900; 2nd-T18): Schauffele was the unlucky loser last week to McIlroy. He did gain over 13.1 strokes ball-striking for the week but needs his putter to take a step up to knock off one of the bigger names.
4. Taylor Pendrith ($6,000; T10-win): Pendrith won his first event two starts ago and then followed that up with a T10 effort at Quail Hollow. He’s got the length to challenge at these longer courses and is in solid form to potentially post a big finish in what will be just his second PGA Championship start.
5. Alex Noren ($7,200; T24-T3): Noren’s come close to grabbing wins multiple times over the last eight months. He’s finished T25 or better in each of his last seven PGA starts and has gained strokes OTT and on APP in five of his last seven.
6. Byeong Hun An ($7,800; 3rd-T4): An’s playing terrific golf at the moment. He’s top 5’d two weeks in a row and has gained over 3.0 strokes putting in both those starts. He’s got the power and consistency off the tee to challenge on a layout like Valhalla.
7. Brooks Koepka ($10,800; win-T9): Koepka won in his last start on LIV. While he didn’t play great at Augusta you can’t deny he’s had a great season thus far on his home Tour.
8. Max Homa ($9,700; T8-T55-T3): Homa posted a T8 last week at Quail Hollow and is just a few weeks removed from a career-best T3 at Augusta. He’ll need to pick up his ball-striking to challenge the elite players but has shown he’s capable of doing that on these tougher setups.
9. Russell Henley ($7,300; T12-T10): Henley has been a little up and down this year but he comes in having gained 4.4 strokes on approach at Quail Hollow. Overall, he’s finished T12 or better in three of his last four starts.
10. Si Woo Kim ($7,700; T16-T13): Kim gets the consistency award this week. He’s played in 13 PGA events in 2024, missed zero cuts, and has gained over 7.0 strokes tee to green in five of his last seven starts.
DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY
Cash Games: Hard to hate on Rory
McIlroy ($12,000) was dominant last week and has already won a major at this venue giving us what appears to be a very safe floor. Even if he gets Snakebit again, his upside this week feels very similar to Scheffler ($13,200) who will cost you $1,200 more. Underneath Rory, there is good value lurking in names like Sam Burns ($8,500), Si Woo Kim ($7,700), and even Taylor Pendrith ($6,000) who is playing some very good golf right now and finished T29 at this event last season. Using Burns as a second man means you may not have to dip down that low but Pendrith certainly seems mispriced compared to other names at that range.
Tournaments: Don’t count out DeChambeau
Bryson DeChambeau ($9,600) is always a name that inspires some kind of feeling and for that reason, we’re not likely to see his ownership get too out of hand in big GPPs this week. While he hasn’t posted any big finishes since his T6 at Augusta in April he’s also shot over par in a round just once in those two LIV starts. He’s also won a Jack Nicklaus design before (Memorial 2018) and certainly has the length off the tee to deal with Valhalla’s distance. Another player with good distance who also outperformed at Augusta (and who isn't likely to be popular again this week) is Dane Nicolai Hojgaard ($7,400). Hojgaard has plenty of power off the tee and is coming off a personal-best finish of T13 at Augusta himself. While he hasn’t played much since, certainly the setup looks solid for a player who also posted a 2nd place finish at Torrey Pines on his first go-round at that US Open venue back in January.
MY PICK: Joaquin Niemann ($9,400)
Niemann has shown us all season that he’s a player who is ready to take that proverbial next step up. He’s won twice on the LIV Golf Tour in just seven starts, with his other five starts on that TOUR yielding four more top 10s. His T22 at Augusta may have been slightly disappointing but he did manage to beat both Jon Rahm and Brooks Koepka (two players with much shorter odds and higher DFS salaries than him this week) and his T22 left him tied with another favorite this week in Rory McIlroy.
Niemann’s also had plenty of success on many of the PGA’s longest venues (before leaving) posting a multiple-stroke win at Riviera, and multiple top-10 finishes at Muirfield Village, another Jack Nicklaus design. At $9,400, his price isn’t likely to make him that chalky this week, but he also sits behind players like Max Homa, Cameron Smith, and Patrick Cantlay names he has ostensibly outperformed for much of the season. His upside makes him a great second man to pair with a McIlroy, Koepka, or Rahm-type player this week for DFS and for betting the fact he still sits behind some of those aforementioned names in the odds makes him a decent enough value at +3000 on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
MY SLEEPER: Sepp Straka ($7,500)
Straka has proven himself to be one of the more underrated players on the PGA TOUR over the last year or so. The Austrian has two wins under his belt already and a T2 in a major championship that he posted at the Open in 2023. Straka started somewhat slowly this year but picked up the pace nicely right before the Masters. His T16 at Augusta was a career best and since then he’s posted T5 and T8 finishes in his last two starts gaining over 6.0 strokes ball-striking on both occasions.
Straka’s last win also came on bentgrass at the John Deere and he showed well on the tougher Oak Hill at this major last season sneaking in for a backdoor top 10 (at the time his first major top 10). He’s a great iron player and a confident putter who has proven his upside in that area of the game on multiple surfaces already.
Considering the price tag you have to love being able to use him as a deeper value this week in DFS, and for betting his top 10 and top 20 odds (+550/+230) offer some potentially great value given his form.
My Punt Play: Thorbjorn Olesen ($5,600)
With the prices once again dipping under $6,000 on DraftKings, you really should be looking to take advantage by making some extreme stars and scrubs lineups if possible. While not every player under $6,000 needs to be rostered if you are looking in this range it is hard to look past the Dane Thorbjorn Olesen. Olesen’s a veteran who has already played in eight PGA Championships and has a solid record of making the weekend at majors (he’s 6/8 at the PGA alone).
Additionally, he’s coming off a nice week at Myrtle Beach where he finished with a tournament-best 61 and landed himself another top 20. Just from a world-ranking perspective (75 in OWGR) I think choosing Olesen over some of the names down in his range makes sense. He’s got proven upside, and experience and has shown really solid form in multiple PGA starts over the last two months.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
